Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.62 – 150.53

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±17.2

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 72.71Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 47.95Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 32.96Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±16.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 105.62Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 31.97Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 12.94Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 4183, 11176

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10933, 4183, 11176

Auto

19.0 12%

Teleop

93.3 59%

Endgame

44.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 10506, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 10506, 1165

Auto

30.7 20%

Teleop

75.6 50%

Endgame

45.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score153.6pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 127–178
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.7Season APEX348.7

19Auto30.7

93.3Teleop75.6

44.8Endgame45.9

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	47	69
endgame	16	12
foul	15	0
total	99	103

Result

Final score

99 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 pts

Match videos

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