Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.5 – 240.07

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±11.7

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -4.91Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 147.82Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 139.59Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±9

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 145.34Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -13.5Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 108.23Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 498, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, 498, 2403

Auto

68.6 25%

Teleop

138.2 50%

Endgame

69.8 25%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, NaN, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 6352

Auto

61.2 26%

Teleop

138.7 58%

Endgame

39.9 17%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score282.5pts

Blue projected score240.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.4
Score range: 218–305
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 734 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX294.5

68.6Auto61.2

138.2Teleop138.7

69.8Endgame39.9

24Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	63
teleop	246	157
endgame	190	50
foul	0	0
total	464	270

Result

Final score

464 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 pts

Match videos

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