Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.01 – 178.04

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±9

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 163.5Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 6.62Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 128.89Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±13.5

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 114.07Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 45.57Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 18.4Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, NaN, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

299 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 6352

Auto

61.3 21%

Teleop

190.4 64%

Endgame

46.8 16%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 7755, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 7755, 1165

Auto

40.5 23%

Teleop

79.7 46%

Endgame

53.6 31%

Strengths

· 2486 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score299pts

Blue projected score178pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121
Score range: 156–321
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.5Season APEX396

61.3Auto40.5

190.4Teleop79.7

46.8Endgame53.6

1Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	33
teleop	76	45
endgame	31	26
foul	0	0
total	168	104

Result

Final score

168 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 pts

Match videos

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