Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.61 – 193.87

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 131.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±8.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 124.92Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 25.22Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 105.47Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±17.2

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 88.71Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 52.93Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 52.23Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, NaN, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, NaN, 2403

Auto

67.3 27%

Teleop

136.7 54%

Endgame

49.5 20%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10933, 4183, 11176

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10933, 4183, 11176

Auto

23.6 12%

Teleop

134.1 67%

Endgame

41.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score255.6pts

Blue projected score193.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.7
Score range: 173–277
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX176.7

67.3Auto23.6

136.7Teleop134.1

49.5Endgame41.5

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	9
teleop	208	45
endgame	128	68
foul	20	0
total	446	122

Result

Final score

446 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 131.1 pts

Match videos

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