Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.64 – 49.66

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 135 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±15.5

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 9.79Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 37.34Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 27.51Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 42.3 ±8

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 13.02Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 37.34Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -0.7Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11176, 2403, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11176, 2403, 2486

Auto

10.6 14%

Teleop

47.5 64%

Endgame

16.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10933, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10933, NaN, NaN

Auto

7.0 15%

Teleop

22.7 48%

Endgame

17.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25
Score range: 31–94
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.8Season APEX42.3

10.6Auto7

47.5Teleop22.7

16.7Endgame17.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	10
teleop	179	13
endgame	83	3
foul	0	0
total	321	26

Result

Final score

321 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 135 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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