Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.42 – 158.3

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±41.8

9974Off-Season Demo Team 9974

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.56Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 44.84Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 33.02Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±16.4

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 163.04Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 10.4Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -15.14Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9974, 4183, 7755

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9974, 4183, 7755

Auto

14.0 13%

Teleop

52.6 50%

Endgame

37.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 1165, 698

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 1165, 698

Auto

56.8 37%

Teleop

65.1 42%

Endgame

33.5 22%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.4pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.9
Score range: 83–183
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.1Season APEX439.9

14Auto56.8

52.6Teleop65.1

37.7Endgame33.5

53Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	60
teleop	53	52
endgame	21	24
foul	0	0
total	83	136

Result

Final score

83 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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