Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.02 – 36.64

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±10

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 162.1Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -25.08Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 21Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 37.1 ±42.1

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.79Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 13Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 19.85Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, NaN, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, 10988

Auto

27.9 17%

Teleop

87.0 54%

Endgame

46.0 29%

Strengths

· 2403 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9973, NaN, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9973, NaN, 9091

Auto

9.5 29%

Teleop

8.2 25%

Endgame

15.6 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score158pts

Blue projected score36.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.4
Score range: 12–183
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.6Season APEX37.1

27.9Auto9.5

87Teleop8.2

46Endgame15.6

0Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	7
teleop	69	17
endgame	37	16
foul	0	0
total	130	40

Result

Final score

130 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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