Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.95 – 82.82

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.8 ±19.3

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 100.6Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -41.72Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 22.07Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100 ±18.4

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 47.33Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 24.28Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 11.21Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 2662, 9704

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 2662, 9704

Auto

21.1 26%

Teleop

38.5 47%

Endgame

21.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 11176, 4146

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 11176, 4146

Auto

20.9 26%

Teleop

41.2 51%

Endgame

19.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score82.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 56–108
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.8Season APEX100

21.1Auto20.9

38.5Teleop41.2

21.6Endgame19.1

66Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	8
teleop	58	22
endgame	23	0
foul	0	0
total	92	30

Result

Final score

92 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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