Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.49 – 239.67

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 56.7 ±13

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 5.65Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 135.28Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 48.56Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.6 ±16.9

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 33.02Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 43.61Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 163.04Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 996, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 996, NaN, NaN

Auto

58.4 31%

Teleop

97.4 52%

Endgame

31.3 17%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7755, 10380, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7755, 10380, 498

Auto

60.3 27%

Teleop

88.8 40%

Endgame

75.7 34%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score239.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 164–265
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

56.7Season APEX456.6

58.4Auto60.3

97.4Teleop88.8

31.3Endgame75.7

20Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	58
teleop	127	55
endgame	19	99
foul	0	30
total	205	242

Result

Final score

205 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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