Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.25 – 176.21

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±20

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 105.19Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 22.54Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 25.52Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±40.8

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 13.62Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.04Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 171.63Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 996, 9704

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10933, 996, 9704

Auto

18.1 12%

Teleop

97.6 62%

Endgame

40.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, 9973, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, 9973, NaN

Auto

54.5 32%

Teleop

91.8 54%

Endgame

25.0 15%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score176.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23
Score range: 132–197
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.5Season APEX167.1

18.1Auto54.5

97.6Teleop91.8

40.6Endgame25

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	54
teleop	26	44
endgame	7	13
foul	0	0
total	45	111

Result

Final score

45 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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