Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.6 – 78.71

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.9 ±15.3

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 44.95Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 59.71Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -8.06Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 87.4 ±42.8

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -38.69Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 100.32Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9974Off-Season Demo Team 9974

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.08Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10380, 4183, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10380, 4183, NaN

Auto

5.1 5%

Teleop

57.1 61%

Endgame

31.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2662, 10933, 9974

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2662, 10933, 9974

Auto

24.5 30%

Teleop

40.9 50%

Endgame

16.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score78.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 57–119
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130.9Season APEX87.4

5.1Auto24.5

57.1Teleop40.9

31.1Endgame16.2

22Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	32	29
endgame	3	16
foul	0	0
total	52	60

Result

Final score

52 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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