Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

39.93 – 10.43

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 37.1 ±13

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 26.98Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -28.2Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 41.15Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±20

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 16.65Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 3.13Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -9.35Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, NaN, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 9091

Auto

13.1 39%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

22.7 67%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9704, 10988, 698

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9704, 10988, 698

Auto

13.1 100%

Teleop

0.8 9%

Endgame

-4.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.42 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score10.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.5
Score range: -12–62
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

37.1Season APEX272.3

13.1Auto13.1

-2.1Teleop0.8

22.7Endgame-4.9

38Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	19	18
endgame	23	3
foul	0	0
total	56	43

Result

Final score

56 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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