Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.07 – 242

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±18.7

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 20.54Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 37.61Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 162.92Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±14.3

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 137.05Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 43.91Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 61.04Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1011, 996, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1011, 996, 498

Auto

49.9 23%

Teleop

83.8 38%

Endgame

86.5 39%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, 10506, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, 10506, NaN

Auto

37.7 16%

Teleop

121.2 51%

Endgame

79.8 33%

Strengths

· 2403 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score221.1pts

Blue projected score242pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: 199–264
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX223

49.9Auto37.7

83.8Teleop121.2

86.5Endgame79.8

2Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	19
teleop	49	143
endgame	21	52
foul	0	0
total	81	214

Result

Final score

81 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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