Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.7 – 124.09

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 57 ±40.8

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX -10.35Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9974Off-Season Demo Team 9974

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.75Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 149.3Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.1 ±14.3

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 7.5Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 102.08Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 14.51Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1165, 9974, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1165, 9974, NaN

Auto

42.4 31%

Teleop

78.8 57%

Endgame

16.9 12%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4146, 2486, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4146, 2486, NaN

Auto

31.1 25%

Teleop

67.5 54%

Endgame

27.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score148.7pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.6
Score range: 102–171
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

57Season APEX297.1

42.4Auto31.1

78.8Teleop67.5

16.9Endgame27.4

100Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	33
teleop	83	35
endgame	17	22
foul	0	15
total	176	105

Result

Final score

176 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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