Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.43 – 21.08

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.4 ±16.9

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 34.26Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 6.26Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 155.91Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±15.3

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 11.6Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 16.74Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -7.26Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7755, 2662, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7755, 2662, 2403

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

107.0 56%

Endgame

49.1 26%

Strengths

· 2403 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10506, NaN, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.1 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10506, NaN, 10988

Auto

23.2 83%

Teleop

11.4 41%

Endgame

-6.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.4pts

Blue projected score21.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.4
Score range: -1–218
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.4Season APEX214.6

35Auto23.2

107Teleop11.4

49.1Endgame-6.5

38Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	36	39
endgame	49	20
foul	0	0
total	102	77

Result

Final score

102 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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