Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.56 – 144.22

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.6 ±15.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -5.24Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 4.21Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 44.59Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338 ±19.3

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 44.15Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 53.84Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 46.23Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 1165, 10380

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 1165, 10380

Auto

13.4 33%

Teleop

2.6 6%

Endgame

24.9 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9091, 2486, 996

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9091, 2486, 996

Auto

17.2 12%

Teleop

93.5 64%

Endgame

34.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.68 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score43.6pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.7
Score range: 23–165
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.6Season APEX338

13.4Auto17.2

2.6Teleop93.5

24.9Endgame34.8

133Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	17	60
endgame	10	87
foul	15	0
total	63	184

Result

Final score

63 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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