Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.52 – 77.6

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 26.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.6 ±20

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 19.91Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 32.93Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 34.68Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 45.1 ±13

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 86.46Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -2.91Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -5.95Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10506, 9091, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10506, 9091, 1165

Auto

11.7 14%

Teleop

39.3 45%

Endgame

35.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, NaN, 2662

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 2662

Auto

12.2 17%

Teleop

34.3 48%

Endgame

25.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.9
Score range: 57–109
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.6Season APEX45.1

11.7Auto12.2

39.3Teleop34.3

35.5Endgame25.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	52
teleop	29	53
endgame	29	6
foul	0	5
total	73	116

Result

Final score

73 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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