Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.26 – 60.39

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 56.7 ±42.1

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 61.51Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9974Off-Season Demo Team 9974

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.59Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -0.84Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.3 ±17.7

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 6.16Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 8.18Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 46.05Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 996, 9974, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 996, 9974, NaN

Auto

18.1 20%

Teleop

73.1 82%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4183, 9704, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4183, 9704, 6352

Auto

0.7 1%

Teleop

56.4 85%

Endgame

9.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score81.3pts

Blue projected score60.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 39–102
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

56.7Season APEX422.3

18.1Auto0.7

73.1Teleop56.4

-2.2Endgame9.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	6
teleop	31	148
endgame	12	44
foul	0	0
total	58	198

Result

Final score

58 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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