Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.28 – 83.02

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.2 ±18.4

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -15.14Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 13Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 25.42Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.3 ±41.6

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 10.4Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 68.83Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.79Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 698, NaN, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 698, NaN, 10506

Auto

11.7 58%

Teleop

5.7 28%

Endgame

2.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1165, 10933, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1165, 10933, 9973

Auto

22.1 26%

Teleop

57.8 69%

Endgame

4.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score23.3pts

Blue projected score83pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.7
Score range: -2–108
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 139.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.2Season APEX99.3

11.7Auto22.1

5.7Teleop57.8

2.8Endgame4.3

141Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	24	35
endgame	13	16
foul	0	0
total	49	65

Result

Final score

49 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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