Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.68 – 178.45

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

554 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 123.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.8 ±15.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 250.15Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 35.36Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 67.17Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±10

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 81.29Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 55.32Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 41.84Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 11176, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 11176, 2403

Auto

97.2 28%

Teleop

190.0 54%

Endgame

63.3 18%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, NaN, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, NaN, 2486

Auto

50.6 30%

Teleop

96.2 57%

Endgame

22.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score352.7pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.2
Score range: 138–393
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 219.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.8Season APEX411.3

97.2Auto50.6

190Teleop96.2

63.3Endgame22.2

72Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	59
teleop	325	40
endgame	117	33
foul	0	0
total	554	132

Result

Final score

554 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 123.9 pts

Match videos

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