Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.85 – 332.92

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

335 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.8 ±15.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 251.64Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 38.16Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 69.05Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.7 ±11

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 43.32Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 138.09Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 151.51Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 11176, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 11176, 2403

Auto

95.3 27%

Teleop

194.2 55%

Endgame

66.7 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 2375, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2375, NaN

Auto

48.2 14%

Teleop

183.2 55%

Endgame

103.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score358.8pts

Blue projected score332.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 294–398
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 215.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.8Season APEX99.7

95.3Auto48.2

194.2Teleop183.2

66.7Endgame103.8

70Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	65
teleop	178	227
endgame	51	101
foul	0	0
total	335	393

Result

Final score

335 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Match videos

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