Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.39 – 236.56

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

380 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.7 ±11

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 37.45Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 129.13Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 144.81Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.2 ±17.7

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 92.35Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 89.37Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 54.84Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 2375, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2375, NaN

Auto

51.7 16%

Teleop

177.5 56%

Endgame

85.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 991, 6352, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 991, 6352, 10506

Auto

27.2 12%

Teleop

137.5 60%

Endgame

65.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score311.4pts

Blue projected score236.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 199–349
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 213.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.7Season APEX439.2

51.7Auto27.2

177.5Teleop137.5

85.5Endgame65.9

105Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	46
teleop	194	98
endgame	145	33
foul	0	0
total	380	177

Result

Final score

380 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Match videos

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