Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.09 – 143.52

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.8 ±15.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 260.7Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 49.17Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 79.22Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±10

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 68.08Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 46.37Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 29.07Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 11176, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 11176, 2403

Auto

106.2 28%

Teleop

204.8 53%

Endgame

74.9 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, NaN, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, NaN, 2486

Auto

48.5 37%

Teleop

80.1 62%

Endgame

1.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score389.1pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.6
Score range: 106–427
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 210.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.8Season APEX411.3

106.2Auto48.5

204.8Teleop80.1

74.9Endgame1.2

67Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	52
teleop	167	131
endgame	54	66
foul	0	0
total	287	249

Result

Final score

287 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 pts

Match videos

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