Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.32 – 219.38

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.2 ±14.3

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 47.98Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 32.3Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 79.04Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.7 ±41.5

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.91Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 129.01Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 80.46Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 996, 2403, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 996, 2403, NaN

Auto

8.2 6%

Teleop

124.3 86%

Endgame

12.3 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9999, 2375, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9999, 2375, NaN

Auto

25.7 12%

Teleop

93.2 45%

Endgame

89.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score159.3pts

Blue projected score219.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.1
Score range: 120–258
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 218.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.2Season APEX99.7

8.2Auto25.7

124.3Teleop93.2

12.3Endgame89.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	20
teleop	189	113
endgame	59	95
foul	0	0
total	312	228

Result

Final score

312 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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