Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.45 – 232.19

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±14.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 41.88Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 92.78Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 59.79Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±17

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 48.79Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 42.65Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 140.75Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 2403, 11176

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2403, 11176

Auto

17.7 9%

Teleop

117.0 61%

Endgame

57.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 9091, 2375

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 9091, 2375

Auto

49.6 21%

Teleop

125.9 54%

Endgame

56.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score194.5pts

Blue projected score232.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: 151–275
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 237.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.6Season APEX136.8

17.7Auto49.6

117Teleop125.9

57.1Endgame56.9

5Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	41
teleop	119	98
endgame	53	45
foul	0	0
total	190	184

Result

Final score

190 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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