Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.9 – 164.38

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 88 ±44

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 42.67Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 29.74Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.49Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 70.8 ±13

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 148.1Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -5.06Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 21.34Rank 15Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10506, 9704, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10506, 9704, 9999

Auto

17.8 21%

Teleop

30.2 35%

Endgame

37.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, NaN, 6833

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 6833

Auto

44.2 27%

Teleop

87.9 53%

Endgame

32.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score87.9pts

Blue projected score164.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.5
Score range: 45–207
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 237.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

88Season APEX70.8

17.8Auto44.2

30.2Teleop87.9

37.9Endgame32.8

46Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	61
teleop	10	140
endgame	32	33
foul	15	0
total	73	234

Result

Final score

73 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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