Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.15 – 426.95

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 526

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±16.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 40.42Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 39.41Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 82.32Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.8 ±13.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 275.76Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 76.01Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 75.18Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 996, 991

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 996, 991

Auto

27.7 17%

Teleop

94.2 58%

Endgame

41.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 10988, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

427 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 10988, 6352

Auto

116.5 28%

Teleop

222.6 54%

Endgame

75.1 18%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score162.1pts

Blue projected score427pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -264.8
Score range: 119–470
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 237.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.1Season APEX779.8

27.7Auto116.5

94.2Teleop222.6

41.7Endgame75.1

46Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	154
teleop	84	265
endgame	12	77
foul	0	30
total	107	526

Result

Final score

107 – 526

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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