Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.45 – 185.71

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.4 ±16.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 38.59Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 53.48Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 76.38Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 40.5 ±13

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 18.05Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 35.22Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 132.44Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 9091, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 9091, 10988

Auto

53.7 33%

Teleop

76.9 47%

Endgame

31.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9704, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9704, NaN, NaN

Auto

49.5 28%

Teleop

125.0 70%

Endgame

3.6 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score168.5pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.3
Score range: 130–224
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 211.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.4Season APEX40.5

53.7Auto49.5

76.9Teleop125

31.9Endgame3.6

26Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	67
teleop	47	142
endgame	4	34
foul	15	0
total	81	243

Result

Final score

81 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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