Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.59 – 232.18

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 93.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±19.3

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 24.76Rank 15Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 40.44Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 47.39Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.8 ±20

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 102.94Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 62.4Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 66.84Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6833, 2486, 996

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6833, 2486, 996

Auto

-9.2 0%

Teleop

74.3 64%

Endgame

51.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 991, 11176, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 991, 11176, 10506

Auto

31.5 14%

Teleop

149.2 65%

Endgame

50.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score232.2pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.6
Score range: 74–271
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 218.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.7Season APEX191.8

-9.2Auto31.5

74.3Teleop149.2

51.9Endgame50.3

24Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	22	50
endgame	15	37
foul	0	0
total	58	100

Result

Final score

58 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 93.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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