Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.61 – 193.49

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±16.4

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 90.81Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 81.92Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 31.88Rank 15Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±15.8

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 63.14Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 93.08Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 37.27Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, 10988, 6833

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, 10988, 6833

Auto

48.7 25%

Teleop

103.7 53%

Endgame

43.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10506, 6352, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10506, 6352, NaN

Auto

2.4 1%

Teleop

116.6 63%

Endgame

67.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score193.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.1
Score range: 154–244
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 218.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.4Season APEX342

48.7Auto2.4

103.7Teleop116.6

43.1Endgame67.1

34Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	12
teleop	84	124
endgame	9	72
foul	0	0
total	146	208

Result

Final score

146 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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