Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.24 – 164.21

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±6

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -5.06Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 41.88Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 40.42Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±15.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 48.79Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 76.01Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 39.41Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, NaN, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 2486

Auto

1.6 2%

Teleop

27.2 34%

Endgame

51.1 64%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 10988, 996

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 10988, 996

Auto

45.2 29%

Teleop

99.8 65%

Endgame

9.6 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score164.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87
Score range: 34–207
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 237.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.2Season APEX223.8

1.6Auto45.2

27.2Teleop99.8

51.1Endgame9.6

88Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	29
teleop	85	102
endgame	79	19
foul	0	30
total	168	180

Result

Final score

168 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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