Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

500.05 – 273.26

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±6

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 93.83Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 136.99Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 269.23Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±18.8

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 76.56Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 129.41Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 67.29Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, NaN, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

500.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 498

Auto

105.9 22%

Teleop

269.3 55%

Endgame

114.5 23%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, 2375, 11176

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, 2375, 11176

Auto

64.6 24%

Teleop

172.2 65%

Endgame

28.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score500.1pts

Blue projected score273.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.8
Score range: 237–536
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 202.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX313.9

105.9Auto64.6

269.3Teleop172.2

114.5Endgame28.9

184Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	66
teleop	176	167
endgame	110	63
foul	0	0
total	337	296

Result

Final score

337 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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