Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.76 – 141.06

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.5 ±44

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 86.49Rank 15Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 78.44Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.83Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±15.5

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 58.4Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 14.45Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 68.21Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6833, 996, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6833, 996, 9999

Auto

28.8 17%

Teleop

74.1 43%

Endgame

68.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, 2486, 9704

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, 2486, 9704

Auto

10.5 8%

Teleop

89.6 64%

Endgame

38.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score181.8pts

Blue projected score141.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 102–221
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.5Season APEX460.2

28.8Auto10.5

74.1Teleop89.6

68.4Endgame38.9

60Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	23	33
endgame	35	41
foul	0	0
total	72	99

Result

Final score

72 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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