Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

342.98 – 387.69

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 556

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.7 ±11

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 45.87Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 143.52Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 153.59Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.8 ±15.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 261.83Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 46.73Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 79.13Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 2375, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

343 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2375, NaN

Auto

51.2 15%

Teleop

191.6 56%

Endgame

101.4 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 11176, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 11176, 2403

Auto

99.6 26%

Teleop

213.8 55%

Endgame

72.4 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score343pts

Blue projected score387.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: 303–428
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 883 vs event baseline 223.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.7Season APEX540.8

51.2Auto99.6

191.6Teleop213.8

101.4Endgame72.4

71Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	128
teleop	179	332
endgame	74	66
foul	0	30
total	327	556

Result

Final score

327 – 556

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Match videos

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