Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.41 – 261.64

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 93 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±6

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 126.11Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 11.58Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 101.72Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±13.6

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 20.93Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 144.93Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 95.78Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, NaN

Auto

36.4 15%

Teleop

130.8 55%

Endgame

72.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 2375, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2375, 10988

Auto

31.5 13%

Teleop

166.4 67%

Endgame

51.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239.4pts

Blue projected score261.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.2
Score range: 205–296
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.5Season APEX266.8

36.4Auto31.5

130.8Teleop166.4

72.4Endgame51.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	91	93
endgame	55	35
foul	0	0
total	163	152

Result

Final score

163 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 93 pts

Match videos

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