Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.65 – 233.01

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±17

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 43.64Rank 7Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 6.81Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 21.2Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±13.6

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 10.56Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 136Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 86.45Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11176, NaN, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11176, NaN, 10256

Auto

11.8 17%

Teleop

36.4 51%

Endgame

23.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 2375, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

233 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 2375, 10988

Auto

32.0 14%

Teleop

153.0 66%

Endgame

46.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score71.7pts

Blue projected score233pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.4
Score range: 38–267
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.4Season APEX266.8

11.8Auto32

36.4Teleop153

23Endgame46.8

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	29
teleop	42	226
endgame	33	74
foul	0	60
total	85	389

Result

Final score

85 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 pts

Match videos

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