Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.75 – 220.46

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

499 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 119.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.1 ±15.5

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 107.58Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 14.41Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 254.76Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±6

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 119.46Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 6.06Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 94.94Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 996, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 996, 498

Auto

75.5 20%

Teleop

232.1 62%

Endgame

69.4 18%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.5 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, NaN

Auto

28.1 13%

Teleop

113.6 52%

Endgame

77.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score376.8pts

Blue projected score220.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.3
Score range: 188–409
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 837 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.1Season APEX175.5

75.5Auto28.1

232.1Teleop113.6

69.4Endgame77.8

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	73
teleop	273	212
endgame	105	53
foul	15	0
total	499	338

Result

Final score

499 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 119.9 pts

Match videos

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