Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.37 – 192.07

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±13.6

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 137Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 9.28Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 91.09Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±6

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 110.48Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -2.93Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 84.52Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2375, NaN, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2375, NaN, 10988

Auto

33.0 14%

Teleop

153.7 65%

Endgame

48.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, NaN

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

102.6 54%

Endgame

61.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score237.4pts

Blue projected score192.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 160–269
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.8Season APEX175.5

33Auto26.9

153.7Teleop102.6

48.8Endgame61.3

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	32
teleop	166	151
endgame	48	132
foul	0	0
total	249	315

Result

Final score

249 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 pts

Match videos

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