Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.42 – 80.5

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

487 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.1 ±15.5

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 95.59Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 0.92Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 241.91Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±17

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 42.6Rank 7Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 12.39Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 25.51Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 996, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 996, 498

Auto

70.4 21%

Teleop

216.9 64%

Endgame

51.7 15%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11176, NaN, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11176, NaN, 10256

Auto

11.7 15%

Teleop

41.5 52%

Endgame

26.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score338.4pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 257.9
Score range: 50–369
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.1Season APEX143.4

70.4Auto11.7

216.9Teleop41.5

51.7Endgame26.3

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	22
teleop	276	45
endgame	120	31
foul	0	0
total	487	98

Result

Final score

487 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Match videos

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