Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.82 – 181.27

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±8.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 228.98Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 13.68Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 48.16Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 37.1 ±42.1

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.29Rank 17Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 65.36Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 45.62Rank 11Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, NaN, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, NaN, 2486

Auto

42.3 15%

Teleop

179.6 62%

Endgame

68.1 23%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9997, NaN, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, NaN, 9091

Auto

25.4 15%

Teleop

115.4 66%

Endgame

32.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score290.8pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.5
Score range: 149–323
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.4Season APEX37.1

42.3Auto25.4

179.6Teleop115.4

68.1Endgame32.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	8
teleop	232	24
endgame	1	10
foul	0	0
total	333	42

Result

Final score

333 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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