Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.89 – 141.79

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±42.7

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 16.44Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.92Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 19.53Rank 16Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±17

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 49.05Rank 7Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 49.53Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 43.21Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1212, 9999, 7755

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.9 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1212, 9999, 7755

Auto

18.0 43%

Teleop

17.1 41%

Endgame

7.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11176, NaN, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11176, NaN, 10256

Auto

30.5 24%

Teleop

72.7 57%

Endgame

25.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score48.9pts

Blue projected score141.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.9
Score range: 15–176
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146Season APEX143.4

18Auto30.5

17.1Teleop72.7

7.1Endgame25.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	39	63
endgame	24	21
foul	15	0
total	96	99

Result

Final score

96 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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