Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.82 – 78.56

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 155.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±17

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 151.63Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 40.13Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 130.06Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±10

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -3.6Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 32.43Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 49.73Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2375, 996, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2375, 996, NaN

Auto

42.2 13%

Teleop

216.3 66%

Endgame

67.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, NaN, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, 10988

Auto

15.9 19%

Teleop

28.6 35%

Endgame

37.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score321.8pts

Blue projected score78.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 243.3
Score range: 45–356
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 188.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.4Season APEX342.6

42.2Auto15.9

216.3Teleop28.6

67.5Endgame37.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	117	135
endgame	24	65
foul	0	0
total	152	220

Result

Final score

152 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 155.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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