Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.76 – 156.31

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±16.3

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 23.86Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 5.68Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.22Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±42.8

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.03Rank 17Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 93.43Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 16.85Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10256, 1212, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.8 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10256, 1212, NaN

Auto

12.7 48%

Teleop

-4.5 0%

Endgame

18.5 69%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9997, 10988, 996

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 10988, 996

Auto

19.1 13%

Teleop

79.5 56%

Endgame

44.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score31.8pts

Blue projected score156.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.5
Score range: -2–190
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.5Season APEX223.8

12.7Auto19.1

-4.5Teleop79.5

18.5Endgame44.5

71Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	6
teleop	77	114
endgame	30	52
foul	15	0
total	136	172

Result

Final score

136 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 60 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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