Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.78 – 138.16

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 97 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.5 ±12.5

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 262.29Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 37.02Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 14.47Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 7.17Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 46.37Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 84.62Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 10256, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 498, 10256, NaN

Auto

64.6 21%

Teleop

193.0 62%

Endgame

53.1 17%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, NaN

Auto

13.9 10%

Teleop

65.9 49%

Endgame

55.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score313.8pts

Blue projected score138.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.6
Score range: 106–346
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 177.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.5Season APEX0

64.6Auto13.9

193Teleop65.9

53.1Endgame55.4

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	11
teleop	139	25
endgame	0	13
foul	0	0
total	209	49

Result

Final score

209 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 97 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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