Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.67 – 133.45

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±14.4

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 93.43Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 90.56Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 5.68Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.3 ±14.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.22Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 22.2Rank 11Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 109.03Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, NaN, 1212

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, NaN, 1212

Auto

40.0 22%

Teleop

110.3 59%

Endgame

35.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 9091, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 9091, 2486

Auto

14.7 11%

Teleop

73.7 56%

Endgame

44.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score189.7pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.2
Score range: 99–224
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX281.3

40Auto14.7

110.3Teleop73.7

35.4Endgame44.3

44Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	10
teleop	76	54
endgame	20	79
foul	0	0
total	149	143

Result

Final score

149 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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