Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.95 – 291.08

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

355 – 526

Prediction correct · off by 186 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.2 ±16.7

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 69.01Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 13.97Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 134.97Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.3 ±10

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 79.95Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -22.1Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 233.23Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 10256, 2375

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 10256, 2375

Auto

24.0 11%

Teleop

152.1 72%

Endgame

36.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, NaN, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10988, NaN, 498

Auto

75.4 26%

Teleop

183.3 62%

Endgame

34.9 12%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score218pts

Blue projected score291.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.1
Score range: 188–321
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 881 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.2Season APEX485.3

24Auto75.4

152.1Teleop183.3

36.6Endgame34.9

68Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	83
teleop	172	341
endgame	127	102
foul	0	0
total	355	526

Result

Final score

355 – 526

Prediction correct · off by 186 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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