Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.48 – 307.77

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 103.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.9 ±16.3

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 39.92Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 145.64Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -3.08Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.3 ±14.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 61.42Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 216.43Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 29.92Rank 11Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1212, 2375, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1212, 2375, NaN

Auto

24.4 14%

Teleop

141.2 80%

Endgame

10.8 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 498, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 498, 9091

Auto

66.5 21%

Teleop

205.8 66%

Endgame

37.4 12%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score182.5pts

Blue projected score307.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.3
Score range: 152–338
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.9Season APEX355.3

24.4Auto66.5

141.2Teleop205.8

10.8Endgame37.4

92Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	66
teleop	60	301
endgame	49	91
foul	0	0
total	126	458

Result

Final score

126 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 103.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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