Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.67 – 289.17

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±14.2

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 31.63Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 21.32Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX -39.28Rank 16Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±41.2

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 84.9Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 112.32Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.95Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 10256, 7755

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.7 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 10256, 7755

Auto

-2.8 0%

Teleop

-0.2 0%

Endgame

15.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 10988, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 10988, 9999

Auto

34.5 12%

Teleop

163.4 58%

Endgame

83.2 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score13.7pts

Blue projected score289.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -275.5
Score range: -16–319
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 168.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.1Season APEX411.3

-2.8Auto34.5

-0.2Teleop163.4

15.7Endgame83.2

99Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	38
teleop	24	86
endgame	8	21
foul	0	15
total	41	160

Result

Final score

41 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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