Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.11 – 137.92

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.7 ±41.5

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.32Rank 17Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 15.26Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 154.53Rank 4Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 98.3 ±17.7

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 12.62Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 80.32Rank 7Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 44.98Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9997, NaN, 2375

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, NaN, 2375

Auto

-9.6 0%

Teleop

143.9 79%

Endgame

47.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 11176, 1212

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 11176, 1212

Auto

29.1 22%

Teleop

68.4 51%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score192.1pts

Blue projected score137.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 107–223
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 173.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.7Season APEX98.3

-9.6Auto29.1

143.9Teleop68.4

47.9Endgame35.8

82Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	19
teleop	62	32
endgame	66	9
foul	15	0
total	146	60

Result

Final score

146 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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