Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.09 – 120.02

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.2 ±18.1

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 17.2Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 86.24Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 27.65Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 37.1 ±13

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 39.08Rank 11Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 45.03Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 35.91Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 996, 2486, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 996, 2486, 10256

Auto

12.4 10%

Teleop

84.5 67%

Endgame

28.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9091, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9091, NaN, NaN

Auto

32.5 26%

Teleop

77.7 62%

Endgame

14.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score120pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.1
Score range: 87–164
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 180.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.2Season APEX37.1

12.4Auto32.5

84.5Teleop77.7

28.6Endgame14.4

158Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	29	28
endgame	36	24
foul	0	0
total	78	64

Result

Final score

78 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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